Chase Betting Systems (Also Known As Dog Chase Betting)

If you are an experienced sports gambler you know the old adage, that if you chase your loses you will lose your shirt and be certain to bust your account. It is time to throw all that non-sense out of the window and learn for the first time, that chasing your loses is the best possible scenario. In order to make money using a chase betting system you need three items at your disposal:

1. A decent bankroll (or account balance)

2. A Plan

3. A strong stomach to carry out the plan

The old adage states that: he who chases his losses will burn through his bankroll. This is true, only if you do not have a true plan, a strong stomach and a decent bankroll. Let me explain. The old adage comes from the gambler who bets $100 on Team 1 to win today. Team 1 loses, thus tomorrow the gambler bets $200 on Team 2 to win (he thinks he can not lose twice in a row and plus Team 2 is a sure thing). Team 2 loses, then on day 3 he bets his remaining bankroll on Team 3, he loses and within three days his bankroll busts. The old adage is true, for this gambler…not for you.

You see a chase system uses simple mathematics to ensure that you do not ever lose money. However, you must make sure you bet the correct amount and you must have the guts to follow through with this program. The system is easy to follow regardless of which sport you bet on and regardless of if you are chasing a specific team or a general sport. In 2007, AFSB completed a study of the chase system in the NHL focusing on the Montreal Canadians. The system worked like this: On day 1, $25.00 was bet on Montreal, if Montreal lost, then the next time that Montreal played $50.00 was bet on Montreal, if Montreal lost again, then in the next game $100.00 was bet on Montreal, if Montreal lost that game then $200.00 was bet on Montreal and so on until Montreal wins or you run out of money. Once Montreal wins then the system resets and the next time Montreal won $25 was bet on Montreal in their next game, if they lost then in the next game $50 was bet on Montreal, however, if they won, then in the next game $25 was bet on Montreal.

This simple system made us $1,210.00 in the NBA Playoffs in 2007 (see our Article on Absolutely Free Sports Bets regarding the NBA Dog-Chase System). We again used this system in the 2008 MLB playoffs and picked up a nice $1,373.00.

In the 2010 NCAA Basketball season we are utilizing this system in a more generic manner. We are playing one Dog-Chase and one Favorite-Chase that is not team specific. Click on our Free Picks link to see the details of the 2010 NCAA Basketball Chase System hard at work.

In order to ensure that your account does not bust we recommend that you only bet with 1/4 of the normal amount that you gamble with per game. For example, if you bet $100 per game, then under a chase system you should only bet $25.00 per game. This is why:

The chase system is based upon the premise that you should not be able to incorrectly handicap a game for seven days in a row. If you are betting $100.00 per event in a chase system, and are incorrect 7 times in a row then you will be betting $6,400.00 on the seventh game ($100, $200, $400, $800, $1,600, $3,200, $6,400). To protect yourself you should bet 1/4 of the normal amount, in our examples we assume 1/4 would be $25.00 per event ($25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $800, and $1,600).

Let’s examine the power of the Chase system. Let’s examine one gambler who bets on 14 games (1 per day, over a 14 day period) and this gambler does not do so well, he wins 6 and loses 8. Example 1 below shows if he simply bets $100.00 per game at a normal -110 per game. Example 2 shows the same gambler with the same results, however, he bets $25.00 in a Chase system.

Example 1 – Sports Gambler that wins 6 bets and loses 8

betting $100.00 per game, one game per day

Game 1: Winner, $91.00

Game 2: Winner, $91.00

Game 3: Loss -$100.00

Game 4: Loss -$100.00

Game 5: Loss -$100.00

Game 6: Winner $91.00

Game 7: Loss -$100.00

Game 8: Loss -$100.00

Game 9: Winner $91.00

Game10: Loss -$100.00

Game 11: Winner $91.00

Game 12: Loss -$100.00

Game 13: Loss -$100.00

Game 14: Winner $91.00

This gambler is 6-8 and lost $254.00 over a two week period.

Example 2 – Sports Gambler that wins 6 bets and loses 8

betting $25.00 per game (with chase rules), one game per day

Game 1: 25 is bet and Wins $23.00, so in the next game:

Game 2: 25 is bet and Wins $23.00, so in the next game:

Game 3: 25 is bet and Loss -$25.00, so in the next game:

Game 4: 50 is bet and Loss -$50.00, so in the next game:

Game 5: $100 is bet and Loss -$100.00, so in the next game:

Game 6: $200 is bet and Wins +$182.00, so in the next game:

Game 7: $25 is bet and Loss -$25.00, so in the next game:

Game 8: $50 is bet and Loss -$50.00, so in the next game:

Game 9: $100 is bet and Wins $91.00, so in the next game:

Game10: $25 is bet and Loss -$25.00, so in the next game:

Game 11: $50 is bet and Wins $45.00, so in the next game:

Game 12: $25 is bet and Loss -$25.00, so in the next game:

Game 13: $50 is bet and Loss -$50.00, so in the next game:

Game 14: $100 is bet and Wins $91.00

This gambler is 6-8 and WON $105.00 over a two week period with a losing record.

Obviously you can use this system in way you wish, here are some possibilities:

(1) Team specific. In 2007, in the NHL we only used this system betting on Montreal. If Montreal lost, we doubled up on the next game, if they won, then in the next game we reverted back to our starting point.

(2) Position specific: In 2010, we are playing one dog and one favorite every day in NCAA Basketball, if the dog loses then we double up on a different dog the next day, if the dog wins then the next day we revert back to our starting point. (The same is true for our favorite system)

(3) Position specific within a series: In the 2007 NBA playoffs we played on the dog throughout a series, thus the dog could be Team 1 in game one vs. Team 2, but then Team 2 could be the dog in game 2. We played on the dog regardless of who we played on the previous game.

You must be cautioned, there will be a point wherein you find yourself wagering more than you ever wagered before on one game, however, when that game hits your profits skyrocket. Please do not bet your normal unit, bet 1/4 or less.

If you are skeptical, review our article on NBA Dog-Chase from 2007, view our results from the 2008 MLB Playoffs, or just click on the Free Picks link from our web site and see how the system is working in 2010. Once you see how good it works, you will be addicted.

What is a Circled Game Mean in a Sports Betting Event?

Visitors to Las Vegas or online sportsbooks may come across some games on the betting board that will have special rules attached in the betting. Such games will be circled on the betting board. A red box means that the line is “circled” and subject to reduced betting limits.

Often time’s sportsbooks will circle games on the betting board due to injuries to impact players. NFL teams competing on Sunday’s must submit their injury reports on Friday and provide updates on Saturday. In recent years the NFL adopted a rule forcing teams to disclose on Wednesday through Friday who missed practice and who had limited work during practice. The best practice for sports betting professionals would be to browse individual team websites that post the injury and practice information about the health of their players.

The injury reports have been very accurate in recent years because the NFL wants to protect the integrity of the league because inside information on injuries could be exploited. So teams have been very forthcoming about the health of their players. Injuries to impact players like the starting quarterback, running back and impact wide receivers will cause Las Vegas and online sportsbook to circle the game on the sports betting board until their status come game time is determined. Sharp sports bettors follow the best practice of shopping individual sports books to shop for the odds that are best set on the side they want to bet on.

Sometimes Las Vegas or online sportsbooks may miss important injury information on teams and a smart bettor may bet into a good betting number that favors the bettor. Professional gamblers look for knee, foot and ankle injuries to running backs. A running back who is not 100% healthy and playing with ankle, foot or knee injuries will see their average yards per carry often fall well below their average. This puts the offense in second and third and long situations or what is known as obvious passing situations. Defenses who know the pass is coming can adjust into pass coverage creating less space for the wide receivers to run routes making a pass completion by the quarterback much more difficult which raises the possibility of a turnover. With a capable back up running back it is often better for a team to not play a running back that sports ankle, knee or foot injuries. Many professional sports bettors will look to play against a team who is starting an impact running back who is playing with an ankle, foot or knee injury.

If inclement weather is forecasted for the site of an outdoor game a sportsbook will circle the game and bettors will have betting limits reduced on the game up until about an hour until game time. Wind can factor greatly in the passing game and the best practice for professional sports bettors will look to play under in college and pro football if the betting line has not already been bet down. There are times when the professional has the inclement weather information before the Las Vegas or online sportsbook and this is a scenario when they make advantage bets.

Many sports bettors will find NBA games circled on the Las Vegas or online sports betting board. Often times an NBA team will report a mild ailment from a player in their rotation and list them as questionable or doubtful. Smart betting professionals will tune into NBA team’s pregame show 30 minutes prior to the start of the game to get specific injury information about teams impact players on their rotation. In the NBA if an impact player is lost to injury the replacement player will often step up and the team will have point spread success in the first game the team plays without their impact player in the lineup.

A line may be circled when factors other than game play (e.g., injuries or weather conditions) could affect the outcome of the game. As many bookmakers don’t have enough information on the game and can’t accurately balance the action as it comes in, circled lines can’t be added to a parlay. Some online or Las Vegas sportsbooks may have too much action on one side of the game and even with a line move they cant attract action on the other team. Most sportsbook business models are set to attempt to balance trade on all games and protect their bottom line. Most sportsbooks try to attempt to have all of their lines un-circled. The red box may be removed closer to the start of the game.

The Game of Betting Assassin

It can be pretty hard to look at an author’s website and compare it to your own life. You probably work a regular nine to five job that can be tough at times. Then you go and see a website such as John Taylor’s Betting Assassin and suddenly you have the urge to go out and place some sports bets. The problem is that you have to work for a living and do not even know how to place sports bets. Taylor claims that his eBook and course will solve those problems for you. You just have to follow his advice.

Betting Assassin is another sports gambling eBook or course in a long line of competitors. There really should be a betting system on how many claims these authors can make. All, including Taylor, seem to be raking in the cash when it comes to betting on sporting events. And every single one claims that you can make that kind of money as well.

Some of the authors show flashy websites filled with lots of bling and testimonials. Some of the authors of these types of ebooks all claim to drive the most expensive sports car on the market. And all claim that they rake in the huge dough each and every time they hit the bookie. But you have to dig deeper if you want the real truth about their system. Unfortunately, with most of these ebooks you have no way of knowing what that system is unless you purchase the ebook, course or buy a membership.

John Taylor claims he was an average guy who went to graduate school. This seems to be a common theme; these gurus of the sports gambling world are all statistical geniuses. Taylor, like all the others, seemed to hate his life as well. Is no one happy with their careers anymore? Obviously not, as now they are producing ebooks on how to get rich betting on sporting games. Taylor does give away some of his tips, such as not betting on every single game. That is a bit refreshing because many other authors would have you gamble on all the games you could. And with their system eventually you would win but how much would you lose?

Is the Betting Assassin offering you anything new? Is John Taylor really an expert at cracking the code and giving you the statistical odds of winning? That really is in doubt. You can try the system he has devised because in the end you are really not losing that much. It would be the same as placing a bet because that is what you are doing with any sports gambling ebook; you are taking a gamble that the system the author has designed will really work for you.

Casino, Sports Betting, and Lottery – A Comparison of the House Edge

The house edge, which is the commission that a gambling agent such as a

casino, a sportsbook (bookmaker), or a lottery administrator charges, is a

yardstick that measures how a specific gambling game is fair and reasonable.

It is one of the most important factors that every player should consider whenever he/she is engaged in any type of gambling, inasmuch as it indicates how much of the money wagered goes to the gambling agent’s pocket and how much is redistributed to the winners. Indeed, a house edge cannot be zero since casinos, sportsbooks, and lottery administrators have to make some money in order to cover their expenses, and to make some profit as well. Yet, a high house edge simply means that the players are unnecessarily being ripped-off, and as a result, any gambling game with a high house edge should certainly be avoided by a

knowledgeable gambler.

In this article, we shall compare, in the simplest way

possible, the house edges of a roulette, an evens-odd betting, and a Cash 3

lottery game as representatives of the three major gambling categories.

The Equation

The easiest way to compute a house edge is to compare the actual winnings that are

paid by the respective agents to the winnings that would be paid in a

fair game or bet. A fair game or a fair bet is one in which no commission

is involved; an obvious model is a game between friends. Therefore, in

percentage form, the house edge is obtained by subtracting an actual game winning

from a fair game winning and dividing the result by the fair game winning,

finally multiplying by 100. Thus,

House Edge = [ (fair game winning – actual game winning) / fair game winning ] *

100

Roulette

Because of its simplicity and popularity, we shall consider the roulette as a

representative casino game. A European roulette wheel has grooves marked by the

numbers 0 to 36; the American wheel (also called Las Vegas wheel) has an

additional groove marked as ’00’. So, the European wheel has a total of 37

numbers, while the American wheel has 38. Internet casinos usually make available

the option to select the type of wheel the customer prefers, but the brick and

mortar casinos normally offer only one type. The winning number in a roulette

game is the number corresponding to the groove where a spinning ball lands.

Now, consider a fair game in which 38 friends are playing the roulette at home,

and each one selects a number and places a $1 bet on the number (no two or more

players wagering on the same number). When the ball is spun and lands in a

groove, the number marking that groove will be the winning number.

The person who has selected this winning number collects all the money on the

table thus making him win $37. On the other hand, if the game were conducted in

a casino, the winner would be paid only $35. The difference between the two

winnings applied in the above equation gives us the house edge of a roulette game

as

( 37 – 35 ) / 37 * 100 = 2 / 37 * 100 = 5.4%

This means that every time you spend a $100 on an offline or online casino roulette, $5.40 goes to the casino and the rest is redistributed to the winners. Evidently, there are quite a number of casino games and the house edge varies

from game to game, many of them having a house edge less than that of the

roulette. For obvious reasons, a good gambler always prefers games that have low house

edges, while the casino itself loves those games with high house edges. For example,

the house edge of craps is 1.4% which makes it one of the most preferred casino

games by the players.

Even-odds Sports Betting

Again, because of its simplicity, we shall consider an even-odds betting as a

representative of this category of gambling. By even-odds we mean that the event

(usually a sports game) has equal chances of going either way. An example is a

tennis match between two competitive players each of which has an equal chance

of winning the match.

A fair bet, in this case, is just a simple bet between two friends who just

pick one of the tennis player as winner. If these two friends wager $1 each, the

winner will collect $2, thus winning $1. If instead the bets are placed

through a sportsbook, the winner will collect only $1.91, since the odds of an

evens game at most bookies and online sportsbooks is 1.91. If you are not familiar with the

decimal representation of odds, 1.91 is the same as 10/11 in UK notation and

-110 in US odds notation. Odds of 10/11 mean that you’ll win $10 when you wager $11; and odds of -110 mean that you have to wager $110 in order

to win $100. Anyway, since the winnings paid by a sportsbook is only $0.91, the house

edge of an even-odds betting
will therefore be

( 1 – 0.91 ) / 1 * 100 = 0.09 * 100 = 9%

So, this is how sportsbooks make a living. Since several internet sportsbooks offer odds higher than 1.91 in order to lure

bettors, the house edge could be smaller than 9%, which is one of the things that the bettor should be looking for when searching for a sportsbook. On the other hand, if the bettor is

wagering on parlays the house edge would be significantly higher than 9%; for

big parlays, it could go as high as 40%.

It should be apparent by now that the gambler is better off with casino games

than sports betting. It should also be noted that while the house edge could

be a major factor to consider while selecting a gambling game, it is by no means

the only one. For instance, one should consider the fact that casino games are

mostly games of chance, while sports betting also involves a learned decision in

selecting a pick, consequently leading to a higher probability of winning a bet.

Cash 3

Depending on the state you are in, this lottery game may be known by a

different name such as Pick 3, Play 3, Daily 3, etc. In this game, the player

selects a three-digit number from 000 to 999, and plays the number as a straight

or as a box. A straight play is a prediction that the number will come exactly

as selected while a box is a prediction for the number to come in any order. For

instance, if a player selects the number 672 and plays it straight, he/she will

win if the number drawn is exactly 672. Instead, if the player plays 672 as a

box, he/she will win as long as the drawn number contains a 6, a 7 and a 2, in

any order (276, for example). Obviously, a straight game pays much more

than a box game for the same amount wagered.

Now consider 1000 friends (maybe in a club) selecting a number as a straight,

each for $1, so that all the 1000 possible numbers are covered. When the winning

number is drawn, the person who has selected that lucky number will be deemed a

winner and will cash in all the $1000 collected, so making him win $999. This is

a fair game. In the case of state lotteries, however, the winner will be paid

only $500 in most states. Some states may pay a little bit less, others may pay

a little bit more, but $500 is more or less the standard. The winner therefore

wins $499. The house edge for a Cash 3 game will therefore be

( 999 – 499 ) / 999 * 100 = 500 / 999 * 100 = 50%

This house edge applies not only to the Cash 3 game but also to all state

lottery games such as Play 4, Cash 5, Mega, Fantasy 5, Lotto, Power Ball, etc.

So, whenever you are playing the state lottery, remember that you are wagering

only half of your money on the actual lottery; the other half, you are

just giving it away. Where this other half goes is not the gambler’s concern,

since his/her main objective is to win some money in order to pay the ever

present bills, or to get out of a miserable life, or to change his/her

20-year-old car. As regards contributing to education and other noble causes,

there are other means of collecting money called taxes and charities.

Unfortunately, many states do not allow casino games, and furthermore,

sports betting is illegal in the United States. The player is therefore left

with no choice but to cross state borders in search of a casino, or more

recently, to engage in online sports betting through the several offshore

internet sportsbooks. Nowadays, there is a plethora of trustworthy online

casinos and sportsbooks operating from Canada, the UK, Antigua, Costa Rica, and

so on.

The Conclusion

As far as the house edge is concerned, it has been shown that casino games

are the best choice for the gambler. On the other end, any state lottery is a

pretty miserable game to play. Nevertheless, besides the house edge, there is

also the possibility of winning to consider.

Casino games, like lotteries are mostly games of chance; the player just

selects a number or numbers and waits to see what luck brings him/her. There is

absolutely no basis to prefer one number to others. Some people try to analyze

previously drawn numbers in order to see the trend and predict the next numbers.

This strategy may work a few times, but not always. Keep in mind that it is the

players, and not the machines, who remember the previous numbers. In short, the

possibility of winning a roulette or the lottery entirely depends on luck.

While there is little or nothing that a roulette or a lotto player can do to

initially select a possible winning number, the situation could be quite

different in the case of betting. With a lot of information and some assistance from

sports handicappers, it is possible to predict the outcome of a sports event

with more certainty than predicting a Cash 3 number.